October 2, 2026

The bad news was good news on Friday, as a weak nonfarm payrolls report brought buyers off the sidelines, with the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) settling at a new record high. The NASDAQ also touched an intraday record high before pulling back later in the session. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 29K in September, well below the 84K forecast, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. The soft jobs data likely reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its October FOMC meeting. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool has lowered the implied probability of an October rate hike to just 22.7%. Meanwhile, oil prices were mixed after G7 nations agreed to release 100M barrels of crude oil and diesel from stockpiles. WTI crude pulled back, while Brent crude finished fractionally higher. The DJIA was higher by 250.40 points (0.49%), closing at 51176.96. The S&P 500 rose by 56.27 points (0.73%) and settled at 7722.72. Finally, the NASDAQ surged by 319.27 points (1.19%), closing at 27190.86. 

Breadth was positive with advancing issues beating declining issues by 8:5 on the NYSE and by 4:3 on the NASDAQ. The advancing volume was 58% on the NYSE and 60% on the NASDAQ. VIX was lower by -1.08 points (-6.59%) and settled at 15.31. Crude oil finished lower by -$1.46 (-1.57%), as the November contract closed at $91.41 a barrel. Gold prices were lower by -34.70 points (-0.83%) and settled at $4167.60 an ounce. Bitcoin (BTC) closed the session at $84403.36.  

The market received a confluence of positive developments today but was also overdue for a bounce, with the Market Edge/S&P Oscillator having remained in oversold territory for 16 straight sessions. The bad news is that, near the end of the session, the 10-year Treasury reversed course and rose to finish at 5.273%. The yield remains near multidecade highs and is a development worth watching in the near term. 

Earnings releases to watch on Monday include: N/A.   

Monday’s Market Moving Economic Calendar include: US PMI Composite and ISM Services Index.  

Charts of the various market timing components can be found by going to the Market Edge Home page and clicking on 'Market At A Glance,' which is located on the right-hand side of the page just below the 'Market Recap' section. 

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